Hong Kong’s exports are expected to grow by between 8% and 9% in 2026, according to figures releaased today by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC). The forecast forms part of the HKTDC’s annual Export Outlook report and follows on from the city’s better-than-anticipated 2025 export performance.
For 2026, this sustained growth is set to be driven by robust demand for AI-related electronics products. According to the findings of the recently-released HKTDC 4Q25 Export Confidence Index, the majority of exporters (53.2%) see rising demand for AI/new technology-related electronic consumer goods as the factor most likely to boost their 2026 business. This is seen as crucial given that the electronics sector, overall, accounts for more than 70% of Hong Kong’s total export value.
Heightened uncertainty giving way to greater clarity
These upbeat figures are remarkable given the high year-on-year comparison base from 2025. This is because many exporters sought to frontload orders in a bid to complete shipments before the imposition of the much-anticipated US tariffs.
Detailing the upshot of the tariff-related trade upheavals in particular, Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Research, said: “While 2025 proved to be a year of heightened uncertainty, 2026 should be a year of greater clarity on global trade. With the Chinese Mainland and the US having come to a trade agreement in November, – some four months after many other nations had struck their own deals with the Trump administration – US tariffs are no longer among Hong Kong exporters’ three biggest 2026 concerns.”
Fan did, however, acknowledge that uncertainties remain ahead. She said that as US imports from different countries are subject to different levels of tariffs, business leaders around the world will be looking to re-organise their activities to optimise any cost advantages.
Outlining what this will mean within the Asia-Pacific region, Fan said: “Chinese Mainland exports to the US will be subject to 20% reciprocal tariff rate until November 2026 [1]. This comparatively low additional tariff puts China-based suppliers, many with more mature and highly productive supply chains, on par with their Southeast Asia counterparts, while giving them a significant advantage over any country subject to a higher tariff rate.”
Multi-sector expectation of continued export expansion
Underpinning Hong Kong’s anticipated 2026 export expansion are the findings of the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25, which was also released today. The two key measures of this long-established quarterly metric –the Current Performance Index (51.4) and the Expectation Index (51.9) – have both stayed above the 50-point watershed level, a clear indication that future export growth is expected.
Commenting on the findings of the 4Q25 survey, Kenneth Lee, Head of the HKTDC Research’s Special Project and Business Advisory Section, said: “When it comes to expansion plans over the next two-year period, Asia remains very much the focus. For 42.0% of respondents, the Chinese Mainland was the highest priority market, followed by the rest of Asia (30.3%) and the ASEAN bloc (18.9%). By industry, exporters in almost every sector saw scaling up their activities on the Chinese Mainland as their priority.”
Beyond the headline findings of the survey, a more detailed analysis highlights good news for Hong Kong exporters in terms of both individual market prospects and the likely future success of most of the city’s key industry sectors.
Positive sentiments for major markets and key industry sectors
In specific terms, turning to the Market Expectation Sub-Index, the Chinese Mainland (57.2) and the ASEAN bloc (57.0) are still considered to have significant growth potential. Predictably, this was less the case for the US (down 1.4 to 38.0), with the uncertainties in its trade environment continuing to unsettle Hong Kong exporters.
Turning to individual industries, a number of sectors have expansionary expectations for the year ahead (i.e. had a relevant index reading of 50 or more). Topping the list is Jewellery (54.8), followed by Electronics (52.4), Timepieces (51.6) and Equipment/Materials (51.1).
Despite such overall positive sentiments, the survey also points out the possibility that a number of challenges may lie ahead. Most notably, it cited rising labour and production costs (53.9%), growing logistics challenges (38.8%) and declining overseas orders on account of the general economic slowdown (38.2%) as potential future concerns.
[1] On top of Trump 1.0 tariffs of ~20% on average
References
- Hong Kong 2026 Export Outlook: Sustained AI Product Demand Set to Drive 8-9% Growth Over Coming Year:
https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjE4ODc2Mzk2Nw - HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25: End-of-Year Figures Indicate Positive Expansion Prospects:
https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjE4ODYyNTQwNw - HKTDC Research website: https://research.hktdc.com/en/
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About HKTDC
The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) is a statutory body established in 1966 to promote, assist and develop Hong Kong’s trade. With over 50 offices globally, including 13 in Mainland China, the HKTDC promotes Hong Kong as a two-way global investment and business hub. The HKTDC organises international exhibitions, conferences and business missions to create business opportunities for companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in the mainland and international markets. The HKTDC also provides up-to-date market insights and product information via research reports and digital news channels. For more information, please visit: www.hktdc.com/aboutus.